UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy
Las Vegas, USA
5 Apr 2025
Flyweight
VS
65%
Osbourne
35%
Gurule
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Osbourne
Osbourne holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Gurule has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Osbourne has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Gurule has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Osbourne's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Osbourne
Gurule
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'5"
73"+
Reach
64"
34
Age
+32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Osbourne
Gurule
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.3
27.7
43.7
Performance Avg
25.0
45
Quality of Victory
25
87
Momentum Score
28
Osbourne
Gurule
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
2.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
45%
6.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
2
3
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
9Distance4
0Clinch1
4Ground0
Osbourne
Gurule
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Osbourne
Gurule
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Osbourne
Gurule
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
28
Upcoming
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Osbourne
Gurule
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Osbourne
Gurule
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
OsbourneGurule
Strike Zones
Osbourne
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedGurule
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Osbourne targets the head (77% of attacks) — Gurule absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Gurule targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Osbourne absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Osbourne
RND
Gurule
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Osbourne · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Gurule · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Osbourne · Last 5
Upcoming
Cody DurdenUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
Upcoming
Alibi IdirisUFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · KO · R2
Luis GuruleRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Ronaldo RodriguezRating 6.7Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Gurule · Last 4
W · Dec · R3
Daniel BarezRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Alden CoriaRating 7.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Jesus AguilarRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R2
Ode OsbourneRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04