UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
Phoenix, USA
13 Dec 2014
Lightweight
VS
19%
Varner
81%
Dober
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dober
Dober is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Dober throws more volume but Varner connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Varner's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Dober has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Varner
Dober
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
70"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Varner
Dober
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.9
59.9
41.1
Performance Avg
53.2
46
Quality of Victory
50
33
Momentum Score
100
Varner
Dober
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
3
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance3
2Clinch1
0Ground1
Varner
Dober
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Varner
Dober
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
27/44 fights
Varner
Dober
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Varner
Dober
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
80%
1
KO / TKO Wins
11
1
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Varner
Dober
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
VarnerDober
Strike Zones
Varner
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedDober
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Varner targets the head (50% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Dober targets the head (60% of attacks) — Varner absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Varner
RND
Dober
0/0R00/0
Varner · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Dober · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Varner · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12
L · KO · R1
James KrauseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
L · KO · R2
Abel TrujilloRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauRating 5.5Decision
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Melvin GuillardRating 4.5Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
Dober · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
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