UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
Vancouver, Canada
18 Oct 2025
Women's Bantamweight
VS
57%
Croden
43%
Lisboa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:32
Melissa
Melissa Croden
"Scare"
8 – 3
5'9"68" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 58
Tainara
Tainara Lisboa
"Thai Panther"
7 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide35 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Croden

This is a genuine toss-up — Croden at 57% vs Lisboa at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Croden has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lisboa has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Croden
Lisboa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
68"+
Reach
67"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Croden
Lisboa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.9
43.9
49.2
Performance Avg
41.0
38
Quality of Victory
35
79
Momentum Score
46
Croden
Lisboa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
36%
6.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
35
Head
3
1
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
10Distance1
5Clinch3
24Ground0
Croden
Lisboa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Croden
Lisboa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/11 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
Croden
Lisboa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
46
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Croden
Lisboa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Croden
Lisboa
Striking6.3 / 1.0Volume5.3 / 5.0Grappling1.2 / 5.2Wrestling0.8 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure5.5 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Croden
Strike Zones
Lisboa
Croden
Attacking
35HEAD1BODY3LEGS39 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Lisboa
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
35HEAD1BODY3LEGS39 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Croden targets the head (90% of attacks) — Lisboa absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Lisboa targets the head (75% of attacks) — Croden absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Croden
RND
Lisboa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Croden · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.0
0105.9W7.2L4.8W2025-102025-122026-04
WinLossTrend

Lisboa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W4.5W4.4L5.1L2023-052023-102025-052025-10
WinLossTrend

Croden · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Daria ZhelezniakovaRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Luana SantosRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R3
Tainara LisboaRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10

Lisboa · Last 4

L · KO · R3
Melissa CrodenRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Luana SantosRating 4.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Ravena OliveiraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
W · Sub · R3
Jessica-Rose ClarkRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05

News & Media

Melissa Croden · Tainara Lisboa
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