UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
Chicago, USA
26 Jan 2013
Middleweight
VS
61%
Natal
39%
Spencer
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:13
RN
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
21 – 9
6'0"77" reachOrthodox43 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
SS
Sean Spencer
"Black Magic"
12 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 10

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Natal

Natal holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Spencer has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Striking split: Spencer throws more volume but Natal connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Natal's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Spencer has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Natal
Spencer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
77"+
Reach
74"
43
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Natal
Spencer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.2
9.8
40.5
Performance Avg
30.0
30
Quality of Victory
25
81
Momentum Score
25
Natal
Spencer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.8
50%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
23Ground0
Natal
Spencer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Natal
Spencer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
50
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Natal
Spencer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
25
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Natal
Spencer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
22%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Natal
Spencer
Striking2.2 / 0.8Volume7.3 / 8.8Grappling2.8 / 2.4Wrestling1.9 / 1.7Submission1.1 / 0.0Pressure3.2 / 1.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
Natal
Strike Zones
Spencer
Natal
Attacking
23HEAD0BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Spencer
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD0BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Natal targets the head (100% of attacks) — Spencer absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Natal
RND
Spencer
0/0R00/0

Natal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.7L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W6.4L1.5L2.3L2010-092013-012014-052016-012017-07
WinLossTrend

Spencer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.0L4.5W5.7W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.0L2.8L2013-012013-112014-092016-022016-09
WinLossTrend

Natal · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eryk AndersRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
L · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
W · KO · R3
Kevin CaseyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

Spencer · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Yancy MedeirosRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · KO · R3
Mike PyleRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R3
Cathal PendredRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Paulo ThiagoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Alex GarciaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03

News & Media

Rafael Natal · Sean Spencer
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