UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
Las Vegas, USA
9 Oct 2021
Featherweight
VS
32%
Rosa
68%
Jackson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jackson
Jackson holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Rosa has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jackson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Rosa's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jackson has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rosa
Jackson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+71"
39
Age
+37
Switch
Stance
Switch
Rosa
Jackson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
40.5
36.3
Performance Avg
43.0
35
Quality of Victory
38
20
Momentum Score
59
Rosa
Jackson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.2
36%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
3Ground2
Rosa
Jackson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rosa
Jackson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
28
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/22 fights
Chin rating based on
14/31 fights
Rosa
Jackson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
59
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Rosa
Jackson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rosa
Jackson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
RosaJackson
Strike Zones
Rosa
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedJackson
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rosa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jackson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Jackson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rosa
RND
Jackson
0/0R00/0
Rosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Jackson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Rosa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3Decision
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L · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
L · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · 2021-10
W · Dec · R3
Justin JaynesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
Darrick MinnerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
Jackson · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 6.6Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 5.4Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7Decision
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L · KO · R2
Dan IgeRating 3.4KO/TKO
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