UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3
New Orleans, USA
19 Jul 2025
Welterweight
VS
53%
Prado
47%
Veretennikov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Francisco
Francisco Prado
12 – 5
5'10"69" reachOrthodox23 yrs4-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 49
Nikolay
Nikolay Veretennikov
"Gladiator"
14 – 8
Well-Rounded36 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'1"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Prado

This is a genuine toss-up — Prado at 53% vs Veretennikov at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Prado has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Prado throws more volume but Veretennikov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Veretennikov has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Prado
Veretennikov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
69"
Reach
+74"
23+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Prado
Veretennikov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.9
43.5
42.7
Performance Avg
38.8
60
Quality of Victory
43
26
Momentum Score
51
Prado
Veretennikov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.4
44%
Strike Accuracy
59%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
9
1
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance8
2Clinch3
7Ground2
Prado
Veretennikov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Prado
Veretennikov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
6/22 fights
Prado
Veretennikov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
51
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Prado
Veretennikov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Prado
Veretennikov
Striking10.0 / 5.7Volume0.3 / 4.7Grappling0.0 / 1.2Wrestling0.0 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.5 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
0.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
Prado
Strike Zones
Veretennikov
Prado
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY1LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD3BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Veretennikov
Attacking
9HEAD3BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY1LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Prado targets the head (88% of attacks) — Veretennikov absorbs 88% of strikes there
🎯Veretennikov targets the head (69% of attacks) — Prado absorbs 69% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Prado
RND
Veretennikov
0/0R00/0

Prado · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.1
0105.7L5.8W5.9L6.5L5.9L6.7L2023-022023-072024-022025-022025-072026-04
WinLossTrend

Veretennikov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0106.2L4.0L5.2W6.5L5.7W2.9L2024-082025-022025-072025-102026-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Prado · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Charles RadtkeRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Nikolay VeretennikovRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Daniel ZellhuberRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
W · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07

Veretennikov · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Khaos WilliamsRating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Punahele SorianoRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Austin VanderfordRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02

News & Media

Francisco Prado · Nikolay Veretennikov
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