UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
Las Vegas, USA
7 Dec 2024
Featherweight
VS
53%
Evloev
47%
Sterling
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Movsar
Movsar Evloev
20 – 0
5'7"72" reachOrthodox32 yrs10-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Aljamain
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak36 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'7"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Evloev

This is a genuine toss-up — Evloev at 53% vs Sterling at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Sterling has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Striking split: Evloev throws more volume but Sterling connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sterling has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Evloev
Sterling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
72"+
Reach
71"
32+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Evloev
Sterling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.8
54.2
55.0
Performance Avg
54.2
25
Quality of Victory
38
100
Momentum Score
71
Evloev
Sterling
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
46%
Strike Accuracy
52%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch1
2Ground1
Evloev
Sterling
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Evloev
Sterling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
50
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
23/31 fights
Evloev
Sterling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
71
10-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Evloev
Sterling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
4
10
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Evloev
Sterling
Striking2.0 / 2.7Volume10.0 / 6.5Grappling2.4 / 3.2Wrestling1.7 / 2.3Submission0.0 / 2.2Pressure3.0 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
3.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
10.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Evloev
Strike Zones
Sterling
Evloev
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Sterling
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Evloev targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Sterling targets the head (75% of attacks) — Evloev absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Evloev
RND
Sterling
0/0R00/0

Evloev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.6W5.2W5.8W5.9W5.5W6.0W2019-042021-012023-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Sterling · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W5.5W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.3W4.5W5.0W6.5W5.9W6.0W5.2W6.0W3.6L5.0W6.8L5.9W5.5W2014-022017-042019-062023-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Evloev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Lerone MurphyRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 5.9
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
W · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Dan IgeRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06

Sterling · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

News & Media

Movsar Evloev · Aljamain Sterling
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