UFC 125: Resolution
Las Vegas, USA
1 Jan 2011
Lightweight
VS
71%
Stephens
29%
Davis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 2:33
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
5'9"71" reachOrthodox40 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
MD
Marcus Davis
"The Irish Hand Grenade"
22 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide52 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'10"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stephens

Stephens is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Davis throws more volume but Stephens connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Davis has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Stephens
Davis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"+
Reach
70"
40+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Stephens
Davis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
18.7
41.1
Performance Avg
52.8
40
Quality of Victory
48
76
Momentum Score
56
Stephens
Davis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
42%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
2
Body
1
1
Leg
3
RangeRange
8Distance9
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Stephens
Davis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Davis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
38
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
15/33 fights
Stephens
Davis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
56
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Stephens
Davis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
78%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
4
8
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stephens
Davis
Striking5.5 / 4.5Volume4.6 / 3.0Grappling1.1 / 4.1Wrestling0.8 / 2.9Submission0.0 / 4.4Pressure4.5 / 7.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Stephens
Strike Zones
Davis
Stephens
Attacking
6HEAD2BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY3LEGS9 absorbed
Davis
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY3LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD2BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (67% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Davis targets the head (56% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stephens
RND
Davis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Davis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.8L5.0W4.5W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.2W4.5W5.5L1.5L5.2W4.0L4.5L2005-112007-062008-102010-052011-01
WinLossTrend

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

Davis · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01
L · Sub · R3
Nate DiazRating 4
Submission
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
W · KO · R2
Jonathan GouletRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2 · 2009-11
L · Dec · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06

News & Media

Jeremy Stephens · Marcus Davis
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