UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Newark, USA
7 Jun 2025
Bantamweight
VS
88%
Bautista
12%
Mix
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Mario
Mario Bautista
17 – 3
5'9"69" reachSwitch32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
PM
Patchy Mix
"No Love"
20 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight slide32 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'11"
CFR 8

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bautista

Bautista is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Bautista has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.

Bautista has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bautista's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Bautista
Mix
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+70"
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Bautista
Mix
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.7
7.7
54.6
Performance Avg
0.0
39
Quality of Victory
0
73
Momentum Score
0
Bautista
Mix
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
27%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
36
Head
21
20
Body
4
9
Leg
2
RangeRange
65Distance27
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Bautista
Mix
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.6
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bautista
Mix
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
96
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/20 fights
Chin rating based on
2/23 fights
Bautista
Mix
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
73
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Bautista
Mix
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bautista
Mix
Striking2.5 / 0.0Volume5.9 / 0.0Grappling4.2 / 0.0Wrestling3.0 / 0.0Submission3.6 / 0.0Pressure5.5 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Bautista
Strike Zones
Mix
Bautista
Attacking
36HEAD20BODY9LEGS65 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD4BODY2LEGS27 absorbed
Mix
Attacking
21HEAD4BODY2LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
36HEAD20BODY9LEGS65 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bautista targets the head (55% of attacks) — Mix absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Mix targets the head (78% of attacks) — Bautista absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bautista
RND
Mix
0/0R00/0

Bautista · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0103.0L4.5W5.2W2.8L4.5W5.3W5.0W5.0W5.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W6.8L6.1W2019-012022-022023-082025-102026-02
WinLossTrend

Mix · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.9
0106.6L7.2L2025-062025-10
WinLossTrend

Bautista · Last 5

Upcoming
Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Sub · R2
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Patchy MixRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Jose AldoRating 5
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

Mix · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Jakub WiklaczRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Mario BautistaRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06

News & Media

Mario Bautista · Patchy Mix
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