UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Bantamweight
VS
76%
Yahya
24%
Lopez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Yahya
Yahya is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lopez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Yahya's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lopez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Yahya
Lopez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
67"
Reach
+69"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Yahya
Lopez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.3
13.7
50.5
Performance Avg
38.8
39
Quality of Victory
43
39
Momentum Score
33
Yahya
Lopez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.5
38%
Strike Accuracy
60%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
1
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
1Clinch0
3Ground0
Yahya
Lopez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
3.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Yahya
Lopez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
42
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/40 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Yahya
Lopez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Yahya
Lopez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
7
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Yahya
Lopez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
5.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
YahyaLopez
Strike Zones
Yahya
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedLopez
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Yahya targets the head (67% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Lopez targets the body (50% of attacks) — Yahya absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Yahya
RND
Lopez
0/0R00/0
Yahya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Lopez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Yahya · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Victor HenryRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Montel JacksonRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Ray RodriguezRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
Upcoming
Enrique BarzolaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
Lopez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaRating 5.9Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · KO · R2
Alejandro PerezRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · KO · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
W · KO · R1
Johnny EduardoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Mitch GagnonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12