METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Sioux Falls, USA
13 Jul 2016
Bantamweight
VS
76%
Yahya
24%
Lopez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:19
★ Official Result
Rani YahyawinsSubmissionR3 · 4:19
def. Matthew Lopez · UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Yahya
→
Actual result
Yahya wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Yahya is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Yahya's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lopez has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
YahyaLopez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Yahya
Lopez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
67"
Reach
+69"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Yahya
Lopez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.3
13.7
50.5
Performance Avg
38.8
39
Quality of Victory
43
39
Momentum Score
33
Yahya
Lopez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
5.7
/ 10
5.8
Style: Pressure
4.5
5.1
Style: Volume
4.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
1
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
1Clinch0
3Ground0
Yahya
Lopez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
3.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
5.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
7
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Yahya
Lopez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
42
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/40 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Yahya
Lopez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
33
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Yahya
Lopez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
54%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
7
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Yahya
Lopez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
5.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
YahyaLopez
Strike Zones
Yahya
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedLopez
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Yahya targets the head (67% of attacks) — Lopez absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Lopez targets the body (50% of attacks) — Yahya absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Yahya
RND
Lopez
0/0R00/0
Yahya · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Victor HenryKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · KO · R1
Montel JacksonKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangDecision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
W · Sub · R2
Ray RodriguezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
Upcoming
Enrique BarzolaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
Lopez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad KatonaDecision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · KO · R2
Alejandro PerezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · KO · R3
Raphael AssuncaoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
W · KO · R1
Johnny EduardoKO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Mitch GagnonDecision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12