UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker
Las Vegas, USA
2 Oct 2021
Lightweight
VS
45%
Smith
55%
Mullarkey
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:51
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mullarkey
This is a genuine toss-up — Smith at 45% vs Mullarkey at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mullarkey has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smith
Mullarkey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
76"+
Reach
74"
32
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Mullarkey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.2
38.1
49.5
Performance Avg
40.0
49
Quality of Victory
36
78
Momentum Score
51
Smith
Mullarkey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.6
52%
Strike Accuracy
45%
7.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
14
1
Body
15
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
6Distance14
1Clinch14
0Ground6
Smith
Mullarkey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smith
Mullarkey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/15 fights
Chin rating based on
13/27 fights
Smith
Mullarkey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
51
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Smith
Mullarkey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Mullarkey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
1.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
SmithMullarkey
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedMullarkey
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (86% of attacks) — Mullarkey absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Mullarkey targets the body (44% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Mullarkey
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Mullarkey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Smith · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7Decision
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L · KO · R2
Jamie MullarkeyRating 2.9KO/TKO
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W · R2
Justin JaynesRating 4.2UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · 2021-02
L · KO · R1
Khama WorthyRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R1
Dong Hyun MaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · 2019-02
Mullarkey · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6Submission
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Nasrat HaqparastRating 2.1KO/TKO
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