★ Championship Bout · Flyweight
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Las Vegas, USA
6 Dec 2025
Flyweight
VS
47%
Pantoja
53%
Van
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:26
Alexandre
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
30 – 6
5'5"67" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Joshua
Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
17 – 2
Well-Rounded7-fight win streak24 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'5"
CFR 68

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Van

This is a genuine toss-up — Pantoja at 47% vs Van at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Van has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Pantoja
Van
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
5'5"
67"+
Reach
65"
36
Age
+24
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pantoja
Van
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.7
67.8
60.2
Performance Avg
62.6
49
Quality of Victory
44
65
Momentum Score
100
Pantoja
Van
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
3.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
59%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance2
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Pantoja
Van
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.4
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pantoja
Van
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
78
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/36 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Pantoja
Van
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
100
Current form
7-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Pantoja
Van
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
6
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pantoja
Van
Striking3.0 / 5.8Volume5.0 / 6.6Grappling4.5 / 1.4Wrestling3.1 / 1.0Submission4.3 / 0.0Pressure6.3 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.6
Pantoja
Strike Zones
Van
Pantoja
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Van
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pantoja targets the head (67% of attacks) — Van absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Van targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pantoja absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pantoja
RND
Van
0/0R00/0

Pantoja · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.5W5.5L5.4W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.2W5.5L6.2W6.0W6.3W5.4W5.3W5.1W5.1W6.1W3.1L2017-012019-042021-082024-122025-12
WinLossTrend

Van · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W4.5W5.9W4.9L5.5W4.6W4.7W6.4W5.3W6.3W7.2W2023-062024-072025-032025-122026-05
WinLossTrend

Pantoja · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Joshua VanRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R3
Kai Kara-FranceRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

Van · Last 5

W · KO · R5
Tatsuro TairaRating 7.2
KO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · KO · R3
Bruno SilvaRating 6.4
KO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Rei TsuruyaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03

News & Media

Alexandre Pantoja · Joshua Van
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