UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
10 Oct 2020
Bantamweight
VS
9%
AlQaisi
91%
Kelley
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AA
Ali AlQaisi
"The Royal Fighter"
8 – 5
5'6"68" reachOrthodox35 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 3
TK
Tony Kelley
"Primetime"
8 – 3
Well-Rounded39 yrsSwitch70" reach5'9"
CFR 28

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kelley

Kelley is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Kelley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.

Kelley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

AlQaisi
Kelley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
68"
Reach
+70"
35+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
AlQaisi
Kelley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.7
28.4
0.0
Performance Avg
44.0
0
Quality of Victory
40
0
Momentum Score
69
AlQaisi
Kelley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
3.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
51%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
7
2
Body
5
11
Leg
3
RangeRange
21Distance13
1Clinch2
0Ground0
AlQaisi
Kelley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
AlQaisi
Kelley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/13 fights
Chin rating based on
4/11 fights
AlQaisi
Kelley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
69
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
AlQaisi
Kelley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

AlQaisi
Kelley
Striking0.0 / 6.0Volume0.0 / 5.0Grappling0.0 / 1.2Wrestling0.0 / 0.8Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
AlQaisi
Strike Zones
Kelley
AlQaisi
Attacking
9HEAD2BODY11LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD5BODY3LEGS15 absorbed
Kelley
Attacking
7HEAD5BODY3LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD2BODY11LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯AlQaisi targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Kelley absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Kelley targets the head (47% of attacks) — AlQaisi absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

AlQaisi
RND
Kelley
0/0R00/0

AlQaisi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L5.5L2020-082020-10
WinLossTrend

Kelley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.6L4.5W5.2W2.9L2020-082020-102021-122022-06
WinLossTrend

AlQaisi · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Tony KelleyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Irwin RiveraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08

Kelley · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Adrian YanezRating 2.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
W · KO · R2
Randy CostaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Ali AlQaisiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Kai Kamaka IIIRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08

News & Media

Ali AlQaisi · Tony Kelley
← Back to fights