Leon Edwards vs Gunnar Nelson — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal

London, United Kingdom

16 Mar 2019

Welterweight

50%

Edwards

50%

Nelson

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Leon Edwards

"Rocky"

22 – 6

6'2"74" reachSouthpaw35 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 57

Gunnar Nelson

"Gunni"

19 – 6

Submission Hunter38 yrsSwitch72" reach5'11"

CFR 57

★ Official Result

Leon EdwardswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Gunnar Nelson · UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Edwards

→

Actual result

Edwards wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 50% vs Nelson at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Risk flags

Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

EdwardsNelson

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Edwards

Nelson

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'2"+

Height

5'11"

74"+

Reach

72"

35+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

Edwards

Nelson

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

57.4

56.8

51.1

Performance Avg

52.8

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Edwards

Nelson

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.6

/ 10

1.3

/ 10

4.2

Style: Pressure

7.5

7.2

Style: Volume

2.9

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

0Distance2

3Clinch1

0Ground0

Edwards

Nelson

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.3

/ 10

6.9

/ 10

1.6

Wrestling Style (/10)

4.8

0.7

Submission Style (/10)

8.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Edwards

Nelson

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Moderate

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.0 stoppage

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

6 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

20/28 fights

Chin rating based on

16/25 fights

Edwards

Nelson

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

L · KO · R2

L · Sub · R4

L · Dec · R5

W · Dec · R5

Last 5

L · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R1

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

Edwards

Nelson

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

29%

80%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Edwards

Nelson

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.3

2.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

6.9

1.6

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

4.8

0.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

8.0

4.2

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

7.5

7.2

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

2.9

Edwards

Strike Zones

Nelson

Edwards

Attacking

3 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Nelson

Attacking

3 landed

Absorbing

3 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Edwards targets the body (67% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 67% of strikes there

🎯Nelson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Edwards

RND

Nelson

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Edwards · Last 5

L · KO · R2

Carlos Prates

KO/TKO

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

L · Sub · R4

Sean Brady

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

L · Dec · R5

Belal Muhammad

Decision

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07

W · Dec · R5

Colby Covington

Decision

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

W · Dec · R5

Kamaru Usman

Decision

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3

Kevin Holland

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

W · Sub · R1

Bryan Barberena

Submission

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

W · Dec · R3

Takashi Sato

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03

L · Dec · R3

Gilbert Burns

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09

L · Dec · R3

Leon Edwards

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03

News & Media

Leon Edwards · Gunnar Nelson

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