UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal
London, United Kingdom
16 Mar 2019
Welterweight
VS
50%
Edwards
50%
Nelson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Edwards
This is a genuine toss-up — Edwards at 50% vs Nelson at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Nelson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nelson has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Edwards
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
72"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Edwards
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
56.8
51.1
Performance Avg
52.8
36
Quality of Victory
46
95
Momentum Score
61
Edwards
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.8
56%
Strike Accuracy
69%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
2
2
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance2
3Clinch1
0Ground0
Edwards
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.9
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
68
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
16/25 fights
Edwards
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
61
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Edwards
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
80%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
8
10
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Nelson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.9
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.8
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
EdwardsNelson
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedNelson
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the body (67% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (67% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
W · Dec · R3
Takashi SatoRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03