UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2011
Lightweight
VS
37%
Clarke
63%
Cholish
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:36
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Cholish
Cholish holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Clarke has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cholish has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Cholish has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Clarke's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Clarke
Cholish
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
73"
Reach
+74"
40+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Clarke
Cholish
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.9
18.7
33.8
Performance Avg
46.3
37
Quality of Victory
55
10
Momentum Score
43
Clarke
Cholish
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.6
36%
Strike Accuracy
51%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
31
1
Body
1
4
Leg
6
RangeRange
10Distance21
2Clinch2
0Ground15
Clarke
Cholish
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Clarke
Cholish
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/16 fights
Chin rating based on
3/11 fights
Clarke
Cholish
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
43
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Clarke
Cholish
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Clarke
Cholish
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
ClarkeCholish
Strike Zones
Clarke
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedCholish
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Clarke targets the head (58% of attacks) — Cholish absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Cholish targets the head (82% of attacks) — Clarke absorbs 82% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Clarke
RND
Cholish
0/0R00/0
Clarke · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Cholish · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Clarke · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alex WhiteRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Sub · R1
Joe DuffyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · 2015-04
W · Sub · R2
Al IaquintaRating 5.2Submission
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · 2014-05
W · Dec · R3
John MaguireRating 4.5Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06
Cholish · Last 3
L · Sub · R2
Gleison TibauRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R2
Mitch ClarkeRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12