UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
Chicago, USA
23 Jul 2016
Welterweight
VS
79%
Usman
21%
Yakovlev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Kamaru
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21 – 4
6'0"76" reachSwitch39 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 57
AY
Alexander Yakovlev
"Russian Thunder"
24 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'3"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Usman

Usman is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Usman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Yakovlev has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Usman
Yakovlev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
76"+
Reach
74"
39+
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Usman
Yakovlev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
15.4
61.2
Performance Avg
40.2
46
Quality of Victory
45
55
Momentum Score
36
Usman
Yakovlev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.8
54%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
0
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
14Ground0
Usman
Yakovlev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.1
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.6
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Usman
Yakovlev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
68
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/25 fights
Chin rating based on
9/34 fights
Usman
Yakovlev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
36
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Usman
Yakovlev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
67%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Usman
Yakovlev
Striking4.2 / 4.0Volume7.2 / 3.3Grappling2.1 / 3.5Wrestling1.5 / 2.4Submission0.6 / 3.3Pressure4.7 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Usman
Strike Zones
Yakovlev
Usman
Attacking
12HEAD2BODY0LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Yakovlev
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD2BODY0LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Usman targets the head (86% of attacks) — Yakovlev absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Usman
RND
Yakovlev
0/0R00/0

Usman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.6W4.5W4.7W5.6W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.8W4.5W5.5W5.1W5.8W5.1L6.6L7.4L5.7W2015-072017-092019-122022-082025-06
WinLossTrend

Yakovlev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L5.5L4.5W5.0W6.6L3.1L5.2W5.7L2.8L2014-052016-012019-042020-10
WinLossTrend

Usman · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

Yakovlev · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Joel AlvarezRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Roosevelt RobertsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · Sub · R2
Alex Da SilvaRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · Sub · R2
Zak CummingsRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07

News & Media

Kamaru Usman · Alexander Yakovlev
← Back to fights