UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Las Vegas, USA
14 Mar 2026
Featherweight
VS
95%
Rahiki
5%
Hardwick
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 5:00
Marwan
Marwan Rahiki
"Freaky"
9 – 0
5'8"72" reachOrthodox24 yrs2-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 82
Harry
Harry Hardwick
"Houdini"
13 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide31 yrsSwitch71" reach5'8"
CFR 5

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Rahiki

Rahiki is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 77 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Rahiki has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 58 points.

Rahiki has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hardwick has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Rahiki
Hardwick
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
72"+
Reach
71"
24+
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Rahiki
Hardwick
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
81.7
4.5
74.5
Performance Avg
0.0
58
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Rahiki
Hardwick
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
6.8
3.3
56%
Strike Accuracy
42%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
16
11
Body
4
1
Leg
5
RangeRange
44Distance25
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Rahiki
Hardwick
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Rahiki
Hardwick
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
56
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/9 fights
Chin rating based on
2/18 fights
Rahiki
Hardwick
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Rahiki
Hardwick
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rahiki
Hardwick
Striking10.0 / 0.0Volume2.0 / 0.0Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure10.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
10.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Rahiki
Strike Zones
Hardwick
Rahiki
Attacking
34HEAD11BODY1LEGS46 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD4BODY5LEGS25 absorbed
Hardwick
Attacking
16HEAD4BODY5LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
34HEAD11BODY1LEGS46 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rahiki targets the head (74% of attacks) — Hardwick absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Hardwick targets the head (64% of attacks) — Rahiki absorbs 64% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rahiki
RND
Hardwick
0/0R00/0

Rahiki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.2W5.0W2026-032026-05
WinLossTrend

Hardwick · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0103.1L5.1L2025-092026-03
WinLossTrend

Rahiki · Last 2

W · KO · R1
Ollie SchmidRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Harry HardwickRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03

Hardwick · Last 2

L · KO · R2
Marwan RahikiRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Kaue FernandesRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09

News & Media

Marwan Rahiki · Harry Hardwick
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