UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2
Las Vegas, USA
10 Aug 2024
Women's Bantamweight
VS
45%
Santos
55%
Chandler
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chandler
This is a genuine toss-up — Santos at 45% vs Chandler at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Chandler has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Chandler throws more volume but Santos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Santos's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Santos
Chandler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
68"
Reach
68"
36
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Santos
Chandler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.0
45.0
38.3
Performance Avg
41.5
25
Quality of Victory
43
55
Momentum Score
43
Santos
Chandler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
47%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
12
15
Body
13
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance9
15Clinch16
0Ground0
Santos
Chandler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Santos
Chandler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/25 fights
Chin rating based on
6/10 fights
Santos
Chandler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
43
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Santos
Chandler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Santos
Chandler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
9.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
SantosChandler
Strike Zones
Santos
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedChandler
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Santos targets the body (54% of attacks) — Chandler absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Chandler targets the body (52% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 52% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Santos
RND
Chandler
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Chandler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Santos · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Miesha TateRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Chelsea ChandlerRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Holly HolmRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
Chandler · Last 5
Upcoming
Priscila CachoeiraUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · KO · R1
Joselyne EdwardsRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Josiane NunesRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Norma DumontRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07