UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
Salt Lake City, USA
20 Aug 2022
Heavyweight
VS
46%
Tybura
54%
Romanov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Romanov
This is a genuine toss-up — Tybura at 46% vs Romanov at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Romanov throws more volume but Tybura connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tybura's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Romanov has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tybura
Romanov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
78"+
Reach
75"
40
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Tybura
Romanov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
42.5
50.5
45.2
Performance Avg
52.6
37
Quality of Victory
41
58
Momentum Score
70
Tybura
Romanov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.0
53%
Strike Accuracy
52%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
7
6
Body
5
4
Leg
3
RangeRange
29Distance13
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Tybura
Romanov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.5
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tybura
Romanov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/38 fights
Chin rating based on
10/21 fights
Tybura
Romanov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
70
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Tybura
Romanov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
57%
4
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
3
9
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tybura
Romanov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.5
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.1
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
TyburaRomanov
Strike Zones
Tybura
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedRomanov
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tybura targets the head (67% of attacks) — Romanov absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Romanov targets the head (47% of attacks) — Tybura absorbs 47% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tybura
RND
Romanov
0/0R00/0
Tybura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Romanov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Tybura · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tyrell FortuneRating 6.8Decision
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L · KO · R1
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W · R2
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L · Sub · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2Submission
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Romanov · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 4.8Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 4.5Decision
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L · KO · R1
Alexander VolkovRating 2.8KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Marcin TyburaRating 5.9Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08