UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
Chicago, USA
28 Jan 2012
Light Heavyweight
VS
45%
Evans
55%
Davis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
RE
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
19 – 8
6'0"75" reachOrthodox46 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
PD
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
17 – 4
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'2"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Davis

This is a genuine toss-up — Evans at 45% vs Davis at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Evans has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Evans has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Evans's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Evans
Davis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
+79"
46
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Evans
Davis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.3
18.8
53.1
Performance Avg
50.2
46
Quality of Victory
34
25
Momentum Score
64
Evans
Davis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.9
42%
Strike Accuracy
34%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.5
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
4
0
Body
3
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance8
3Clinch1
0Ground0
Evans
Davis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Evans
Davis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
94
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/27 fights
Chin rating based on
13/21 fights
Evans
Davis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
64
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Evans
Davis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
33%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Evans
Davis
Striking5.6 / 1.5Volume5.8 / 6.8Grappling1.4 / 4.3Wrestling1.0 / 3.0Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure4.9 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.5
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
Evans
Strike Zones
Davis
Evans
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD3BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Davis
Attacking
4HEAD3BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Evans targets the head (92% of attacks) — Davis absorbs 92% of strikes there
🎯Davis targets the head (44% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Evans
RND
Davis
0/0R00/0

Evans · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W2.1L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W7.3L5.5L4.5W5.0W5.5L1.9L5.5L5.5L2.7L2005-112008-092012-012016-042018-06
WinLossTrend

Davis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W5.0W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.9W5.5L2010-022010-112012-102014-042015-01
WinLossTrend

Evans · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10

Davis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 4.9
Decision
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · 2014-10
L · Dec · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Lyoto MachidaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
W · Dec · R3
Vinny MagalhaesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04

News & Media

Rashad Evans · Phil Davis
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