UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
Las Vegas, USA
29 Apr 2023
Featherweight
VS
40%
Erosa
60%
Padilla
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:41
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Padilla
Padilla holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Erosa has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Padilla has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Padilla throws more volume but Erosa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Erosa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Erosa
Padilla
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+76"
36
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Erosa
Padilla
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.6
60.1
46.2
Performance Avg
54.2
44
Quality of Victory
57
26
Momentum Score
58
Erosa
Padilla
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
4.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
17
1
Body
2
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
15Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Erosa
Padilla
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.4
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.8
4.4
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
4
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Erosa
Padilla
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
7
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
4/22 fights
Erosa
Padilla
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
58
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Erosa
Padilla
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Erosa
Padilla
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
ErosaPadilla
Strike Zones
Erosa
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedPadilla
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Erosa targets the head (60% of attacks) — Padilla absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Padilla targets the head (85% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 85% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Erosa
RND
Padilla
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Erosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Padilla · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Erosa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Christian RodriguezRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Sub · R1
Ricardo RamosRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Padilla · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Sean WoodsonRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Luis PajueloRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Kyle NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04