UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jan 2015
Women's Bantamweight
VS
10%
Dufresne
90%
Reneau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AD
Alexis Dufresne
"Sneaky Zebra"
6 – 3
5'9"Orthodox35 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 3
MR
Marion Reneau
"The Belizean Bruiser"
9 – 8
Well-Rounded5-fight slide48 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'6"
CFR 24

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Reneau

Reneau is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Reneau has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 46 points.

Reneau has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Reneau has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Dufresne
Reneau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
Reach
68"
35+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dufresne
Reneau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.7
23.5
0.0
Performance Avg
44.1
0
Quality of Victory
46
0
Momentum Score
15
Dufresne
Reneau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
1.3
22%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
30
0
Body
0
5
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance33
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Dufresne
Reneau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dufresne
Reneau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
66
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/9 fights
Chin rating based on
13/17 fights
Dufresne
Reneau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
15
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Dufresne
Reneau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dufresne
Reneau
Striking0.0 / 4.8Volume0.0 / 2.4Grappling0.0 / 3.7Wrestling0.0 / 2.6Submission0.0 / 4.0Pressure0.0 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.4
Dufresne
Strike Zones
Reneau
Dufresne
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY5LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD0BODY3LEGS33 absorbed
Reneau
Attacking
30HEAD0BODY3LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY5LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dufresne targets the legs (83% of attacks) — Reneau absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Reneau targets the head (91% of attacks) — Dufresne absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dufresne
RND
Reneau
0/0R00/0

Dufresne · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L5.5L2014-072015-01
WinLossTrend

Reneau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0104.5W5.8W5.6L5.5L5.5W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.6L6.1L6.8L4.9L2015-012016-022018-022020-062021-07
WinLossTrend

Dufresne · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Marion ReneauRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Sarah MorasRating 5.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07

Reneau · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Miesha TateRating 4.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · Dec · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Raquel PenningtonRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Yana SantosRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
L · Dec · R3
Cat ZinganoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07

News & Media

Alexis Dufresne · Marion Reneau
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