METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Newark, USA
3 Aug 2019
Welterweight
VS
57%
Covington
43%
Lawler
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Colby CovingtonwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Robbie Lawler · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Covington
→
Actual result
Covington wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Covington at 57% vs Lawler at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lawler has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CovingtonLawler
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Covington
Lawler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+74"
38+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Covington
Lawler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.0
40.7
53.2
Performance Avg
51.0
42
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
90
Covington
Lawler
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
6.5
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
5.5
6.1
Style: Volume
4.9
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
8 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
19
7
Body
4
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
38Distance23
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Covington
Lawler
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
1.1
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Covington
Lawler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
25/46 fights
Covington
Lawler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
90
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Covington
Lawler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
53%
3
KO / TKO Wins
8
2
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Covington
Lawler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
CovingtonLawler
Strike Zones
Covington
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedLawler
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the head (73% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Lawler targets the head (83% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Covington
RND
Lawler
0/0R00/0
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalDecision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanDecision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
Lawler · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceKO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaKO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R3
Nick DiazKO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08