UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Newark, USA
3 Aug 2019
Welterweight
VS
60%
Covington
40%
Lawler
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Covington
Covington holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Lawler has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lawler has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lawler has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Covington
Lawler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+74"
38+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Covington
Lawler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.2
40.7
53.2
Performance Avg
51.0
42
Quality of Victory
45
100
Momentum Score
90
Covington
Lawler
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.3
38%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
19
7
Body
4
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
38Distance23
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Covington
Lawler
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Covington
Lawler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
25/46 fights
Covington
Lawler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
90
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Covington
Lawler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
53%
3
KO / TKO Wins
8
2
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Covington
Lawler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
CovingtonLawler
Strike Zones
Covington
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedLawler
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the head (73% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Lawler targets the head (83% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Covington
RND
Lawler
0/0R00/0
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Lawler · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
Lawler · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R3
Nick DiazRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08