UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
Vancouver, Canada
27 Aug 2016
Lightweight
VS
29%
Lauzon
71%
Miller
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JL
Joe Lauzon
28 – 16
5'10"71" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 18
Jim
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39 – 19
Well-Rounded42 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'8"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miller

Miller is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Lauzon has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lauzon's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Miller has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lauzon
Miller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"
Reach
71"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Lauzon
Miller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
43.5
51.5
Performance Avg
51.5
49
Quality of Victory
45
59
Momentum Score
28
Lauzon
Miller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
21
2
Body
3
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance15
3Clinch10
2Ground0
Lauzon
Miller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.7
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lauzon
Miller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
47/58 fights
Lauzon
Miller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
28
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Lauzon
Miller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
71%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
7
Submission Wins
14
3
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lauzon
Miller
Striking4.4 / 3.4Volume2.2 / 3.5Grappling4.0 / 4.7Wrestling2.8 / 3.3Submission4.7 / 5.0Pressure7.3 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.7
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Lauzon
Strike Zones
Miller
Lauzon
Attacking
12HEAD2BODY1LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD3BODY1LEGS25 absorbed
Miller
Attacking
21HEAD3BODY1LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD2BODY1LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lauzon targets the head (80% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Miller targets the head (84% of attacks) — Lauzon absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lauzon
RND
Miller
0/0R00/0

Lauzon · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.2W5.0W2.8L5.2W5.8W5.5L5.0W2.8L5.0W5.0W1.5L5.5W5.9L5.6L4.5W5.0W2.8L5.0W5.5L5.0W5.9L4.5W5.5L2.0L2.8L5.5W2006-092010-082013-082016-082019-10
WinLossTrend

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.4W5.5W5.5L5.0W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.0W2.1L6.5L4.5W3.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W6.8L5.5L5.5L2.4L5.0W2.9L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.2W5.7L6.2L5.2W5.9W5.2W6.4L5.0W5.7W6.2L5.3W6.3L5.4W2008-102012-052017-022021-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Lauzon · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
L · KO · R2
Chris GruetzemacherRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · KO · R1
Clay GuidaRating 2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Marcin HeldRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01

Miller · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01

News & Media

Joe Lauzon · Jim Miller
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