UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway
Barueri, Brazil
20 Dec 2014
Light Heavyweight
VS
60%
Junior
40%
Cummins
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AC
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
11 – 5
6'2"79" reachOrthodox36 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 19
PC
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
10 – 7
Well-Rounded3-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Junior

Junior holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Cummins has real paths to victory.

Key angles

Junior has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

Cummins has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cummins has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Junior
Cummins
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
76"
36+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Junior
Cummins
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
12.7
55.3
Performance Avg
39.0
53
Quality of Victory
34
41
Momentum Score
45
Junior
Cummins
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.8
43%
Strike Accuracy
54%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
23
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch1
0Ground22
Junior
Cummins
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
4.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Junior
Cummins
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
5
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/16 fights
Chin rating based on
13/17 fights
Junior
Cummins
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Junior
Cummins
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Junior
Cummins
Striking1.2 / 4.3Volume3.5 / 6.3Grappling6.4 / 1.6Wrestling4.5 / 1.1Submission7.1 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 3.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
6.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
7.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.7
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Junior
Strike Zones
Cummins
Junior
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD1BODY0LEGS24 absorbed
Cummins
Attacking
23HEAD1BODY0LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Junior targets the body (100% of attacks) — Cummins absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Cummins targets the head (96% of attacks) — Junior absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Junior
RND
Cummins
0/0R00/0

Junior · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.5L5.5W4.0L5.5W5.3W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L2014-052016-032017-062019-052021-01
WinLossTrend

Cummins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0101.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W2.1L5.5W3.1L1.5L5.1W4.5W5.5L1.5L1.7L2014-022015-042017-042019-05
WinLossTrend

Junior · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Sub · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · Sub · R1
Jack MarshmanRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10

Cummins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Ed HermanRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Misha CirkunovRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Corey AndersonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Gian VillanteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · 2017-07
W · Dec · R3
Jan BlachowiczRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04

News & Media

Antonio Carlos Junior · Patrick Cummins
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