METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Glendale, USA
14 Apr 2018
Welterweight
VS
43%
Condit
57%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:17
★ Official Result
Alex OliveirawinsSubmissionR2 · 3:17
def. Carlos Condit · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oliveira
→
Actual result
Oliveira wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Condit at 43% vs Oliveira at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Condit throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oliveira has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ConditOliveira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Condit
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
+76"
42
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Condit
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
29.9
47.8
Performance Avg
46.5
48
Quality of Victory
43
20
Momentum Score
100
Condit
Oliveira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
1.1
40%
Strike Accuracy
54%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
8
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
5Ground7
Condit
Oliveira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Condit
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
22/34 fights
Condit
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Condit
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
64%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Condit
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.7
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
ConditOliveira
Strike Zones
Condit
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the head (71% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Condit
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Condit · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Condit · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
Oliveira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Sub · R1
Randy BrownRating 2.4Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 3.6Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07