UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
12 Sept 2020
Lightweight
VS
92%
Roberts
8%
Croom
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Roberts
Roberts is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Roberts has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 38 points.
Roberts has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Roberts's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Roberts
Croom
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
73"
32+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Roberts
Croom
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.9
3.3
40.8
Performance Avg
0.0
38
Quality of Victory
0
53
Momentum Score
0
Roberts
Croom
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
30%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Roberts
Croom
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Roberts
Croom
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
4/36 fights
Roberts
Croom
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Roberts
Croom
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Roberts
Croom
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
RobertsCroom
Strike Zones
Roberts
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedCroom
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Roberts targets the head (100% of attacks) — Croom absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Croom targets the head (40% of attacks) — Roberts absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Roberts
RND
Croom
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Roberts · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Croom · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Roberts · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ludovit KleinRating 6.7Decision
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L · KO · R1
AlatengheiliRating 2.1KO/TKO
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