UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
Stockholm, Sweden
1 Jun 2019
Lightweight
VS
30%
Ray
70%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:17
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Santos
Santos is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.
Striking split: Ray throws more volume but Santos connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Ray's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Santos has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Ray
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+75"
36+
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ray
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
36.1
46.0
Performance Avg
57.5
34
Quality of Victory
49
46
Momentum Score
100
Ray
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.1
48%
Strike Accuracy
49%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
4
0
Body
6
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance12
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ray
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ray
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/32 fights
Chin rating based on
11/25 fights
Ray
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
100
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Ray
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
57%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ray
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
RaySantos
Strike Zones
Ray
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedSantos
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ray targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the body (50% of attacks) — Ray absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ray
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Ray · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Ray · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Michael JohnsonRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
L · KO · R1
Leonardo SantosRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Jessin AyariRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Kajan JohnsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
L · KO · R1
Paul FelderRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07
Santos · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jared GordonRating 5.9Decision
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaRating 3.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
L · KO · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman BogatovRating 4.5Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · KO · R1
Stevie RayRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06