UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Houston, USA
19 Oct 2013
Bantamweight
VS
19%
Pague
81%
Horiguchi
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:51
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Horiguchi
Horiguchi is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pague has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Horiguchi throws more volume but Pague connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pague's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pague
Horiguchi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'4"
74"+
Reach
63"
38
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pague
Horiguchi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.6
64.0
39.1
Performance Avg
56.7
54
Quality of Victory
34
20
Momentum Score
100
Pague
Horiguchi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
49%
0.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
21
1
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance5
2Clinch1
1Ground17
Pague
Horiguchi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pague
Horiguchi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/23 fights
Chin rating based on
11/41 fights
Pague
Horiguchi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Pague
Horiguchi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pague
Horiguchi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
0.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
PagueHoriguchi
Strike Zones
Pague
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedHoriguchi
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pague targets the head (50% of attacks) — Horiguchi absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Horiguchi targets the head (91% of attacks) — Pague absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pague
RND
Horiguchi
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pague · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Horiguchi · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Pague · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kyoji HoriguchiRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · Dec · R3
Yves JabouinRating 5.5Decision
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06
L · Dec · R3
Chico CamusRating 5.5Decision
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08
L · Dec · R3
Ken StoneRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Jared PapazianRating 5Submission
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
Horiguchi · Last 5
Upcoming
Manel KapeUFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Amir AlbaziRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Sub · R3
Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ali BagautinovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · Dec · R3
Neil SeeryRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05