METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Houston, USA
19 Oct 2013
Bantamweight
VS
19%
Pague
81%
Horiguchi
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:51
★ Official Result
Kyoji HoriguchiwinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:51
def. Dustin Pague · UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Horiguchi
→
Actual result
Horiguchi wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Horiguchi is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 46 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pague has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Risk flags
Pague's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Horiguchi has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PagueHoriguchi
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pague
Horiguchi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'4"
74"+
Reach
63"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pague
Horiguchi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.6
60.6
39.1
Performance Avg
53.7
54
Quality of Victory
35
20
Momentum Score
100
Pague
Horiguchi
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.3
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
7.5
Style: Pressure
4.8
0.3
Style: Volume
7.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
21
1
Body
0
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance5
2Clinch1
1Ground17
Pague
Horiguchi
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pague
Horiguchi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/23 fights
Chin rating based on
11/41 fights
Pague
Horiguchi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Pague
Horiguchi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
33%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pague
Horiguchi
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
0.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
PagueHoriguchi
Strike Zones
Pague
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedHoriguchi
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pague targets the head (50% of attacks) — Horiguchi absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Horiguchi targets the head (91% of attacks) — Pague absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pague
RND
Horiguchi
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pague · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Kyoji HoriguchiKO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
L · Dec · R3
Yves JabouinDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Chico CamusDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Ken StoneDecision
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Jared PapazianSubmission
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
Horiguchi · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Manel KapeKO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Amir AlbaziDecision
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Tagir UlanbekovSubmission
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