METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2014
Women's Strawweight
VS
93%
Herrig
7%
Ellis
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:05
★ Official Result
Felice HerrigwinsSubmissionR2 · 3:05
def. Lisa Ellis · The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Herrig
→
Actual result
Herrig wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Herrig is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Herrig has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HerrigEllis
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Herrig
Ellis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
65"
Reach
41+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
—
Herrig
Ellis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.3
2.1
41.4
Performance Avg
0.0
36
Quality of Victory
0
66
Momentum Score
0
Herrig
Ellis
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.3
Style: Pressure
0.0
5.8
Style: Volume
0.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Herrig
Ellis
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
3.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
4.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Herrig
Ellis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/24 fights
Chin rating based on
2/26 fights
Herrig
Ellis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Herrig
Ellis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Herrig
Ellis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
HerrigEllis
Strike Zones
Herrig
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedEllis
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Herrig targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ellis absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Ellis targets the body (100% of attacks) — Herrig absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Herrig
RND
Ellis
0/0R00/0
Herrig · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Karolina KowalkiewiczSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Virna JandirobaSubmission
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Michelle Waterson-GomezDecision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczDecision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Cortney CaseyDecision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Ellis · Last 2
L · Sub · R1
Bec RawlingsSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · 2015-05
L · Sub · R2
Felice HerrigSubmission
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale · 2014-12