The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale
Las Vegas, USA
12 Dec 2014
Women's Strawweight
VS
93%
Herrig
7%
Ellis
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:05
FH
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
14 – 10
5'4"65" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 26
LE
Lisa Ellis
15 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrs5'4"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herrig

Herrig is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Herrig has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.

Striking split: Herrig throws more volume but Ellis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Herrig
Ellis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
65"
Reach
41+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
—
Herrig
Ellis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.3
2.1
41.4
Performance Avg
0.0
36
Quality of Victory
0
66
Momentum Score
0
Herrig
Ellis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.8
41%
Strike Accuracy
44%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Herrig
Ellis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Herrig
Ellis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/24 fights
Chin rating based on
2/26 fights
Herrig
Ellis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Herrig
Ellis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Herrig
Ellis
Striking1.0 / 0.0Volume5.8 / 0.0Grappling4.6 / 0.0Wrestling3.3 / 0.0Submission4.0 / 0.0Pressure4.3 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Herrig
Strike Zones
Ellis
Herrig
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Ellis
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Herrig targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ellis absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Ellis targets the body (100% of attacks) — Herrig absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Herrig
RND
Ellis
0/0R00/0

Herrig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.0W5.7W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L2.2L2.8L2014-122017-022018-042022-06
WinLossTrend

Ellis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.1
0102.8L1.5L2014-122015-05
WinLossTrend

Herrig · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Virna JandirobaRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Cortney CaseyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

Ellis · Last 2

L · Sub · R1
Bec RawlingsRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · 2015-05
L · Sub · R2
Felice HerrigRating 2.8
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale · 2014-12

News & Media

Felice Herrig · Lisa Ellis
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