METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
Orlando, USA
24 Feb 2018
Bantamweight
VS
28%
Barao
72%
Kelleher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Brian KelleherwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Renan Barao · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Kelleher
→
Actual result
Kelleher wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Kelleher is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Risk flags
Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelleher has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BaraoKelleher
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Barao
Kelleher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
66"
39+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Barao
Kelleher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
40.8
59.4
Performance Avg
44.5
64
Quality of Victory
43
0
Momentum Score
61
Barao
Kelleher
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
3.4
/ 10
5.5
Style: Pressure
5.8
4.6
Style: Volume
3.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
48
Head
54
10
Body
6
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
56Distance59
6Clinch2
0Ground0
Barao
Kelleher
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.7
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
3
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Barao
Kelleher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
17/40 fights
Barao
Kelleher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
61
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Barao
Kelleher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
63%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barao
Kelleher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
BaraoKelleher
Strike Zones
Barao
Attacking
62 landedAbsorbing
61 absorbedKelleher
Attacking
61 landedAbsorbing
62 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the head (77% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Kelleher targets the head (89% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barao
RND
Kelleher
0/0R00/0
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellDecision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherDecision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingDecision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
Kelleher · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtKO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovSubmission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01