UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens
Orlando, USA
24 Feb 2018
Bantamweight
VS
28%
Barao
72%
Kelleher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kelleher
Kelleher is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Kelleher has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelleher has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barao
Kelleher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
66"
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Barao
Kelleher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
40.8
59.4
Performance Avg
44.5
64
Quality of Victory
43
0
Momentum Score
61
Barao
Kelleher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.7
38%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
48
Head
54
10
Body
6
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
56Distance59
6Clinch2
0Ground0
Barao
Kelleher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barao
Kelleher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
5
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
17/40 fights
Barao
Kelleher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
61
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Barao
Kelleher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
63%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
3
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barao
Kelleher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
BaraoKelleher
Strike Zones
Barao
Attacking
62 landedAbsorbing
61 absorbedKelleher
Attacking
61 landedAbsorbing
62 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the head (77% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 77% of strikes there
🎯Kelleher targets the head (89% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barao
RND
Kelleher
0/0R00/0
Barao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Kelleher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · KO · R2
Luke SandersRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Andre EwellRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Brian KelleherRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · 2017-07
Kelleher · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5Decision
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