★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 10 Heavyweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale
Las Vegas, USA
5 Dec 2009
Ultimate Fighter 10 Heavyweight Tournament
VS
54%
Nelson
46%
Schaub
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:45
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
6'0"73" reachOrthodox49 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 19
BS
Brendan Schaub
"Big Brown"
10 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'4"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nelson

This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 54% vs Schaub at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Striking split: Schaub throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Nelson's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Schaub has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nelson
Schaub
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
73"
Reach
+78"
49
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Schaub
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
15.7
55.6
Performance Avg
49.2
61
Quality of Victory
46
26
Momentum Score
39
Nelson
Schaub
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.7
40%
Strike Accuracy
39%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
8 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
12
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance9
0Clinch3
1Ground0
Nelson
Schaub
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.3
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nelson
Schaub
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
10
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/36 fights
Chin rating based on
11/15 fights
Nelson
Schaub
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
39
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Nelson
Schaub
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
67%
8
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
1
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nelson
Schaub
Striking9.8 / 6.1Volume1.8 / 3.8Grappling0.3 / 2.1Wrestling0.2 / 1.5Submission0.0 / 1.7Pressure7.6 / 6.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.8
Nelson
Strike Zones
Schaub
Nelson
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Schaub
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Schaub absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Schaub targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nelson
RND
Schaub
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.1L5.5L5.5L4.5W6.7L5.2W6.8L2009-122012-022013-102016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Schaub · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0101.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.5W1.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W6.2L1.5L2009-122010-102012-042014-062014-12
WinLossTrend

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

Schaub · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Sub · R1
Matt MitrioneRating 5
Submission
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Lavar JohnsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · KO · R1
Ben RothwellRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · 2012-04

News & Media

Roy Nelson · Brendan Schaub
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