UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
East Rutherford, USA
5 May 2012
Flyweight
VS
37%
Dodson
63%
Elliott
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Elliott
Elliott holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Dodson has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dodson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Elliott has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Elliott has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dodson
Elliott
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
+5'7"
66"
Reach
66"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Dodson
Elliott
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.0
36.8
50.7
Performance Avg
37.9
45
Quality of Victory
33
100
Momentum Score
43
Dodson
Elliott
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
41%
Strike Accuracy
44%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
41
8
Body
2
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
30Distance34
1Clinch10
0Ground0
Dodson
Elliott
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.1
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dodson
Elliott
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
26
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
5
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/34 fights
Chin rating based on
22/36 fights
Dodson
Elliott
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
43
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
Dodson
Elliott
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
30%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dodson
Elliott
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.1
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
DodsonElliott
Strike Zones
Dodson
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedElliott
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dodson targets the head (58% of attacks) — Elliott absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Elliott targets the head (93% of attacks) — Dodson absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dodson
RND
Elliott
0/0R00/0
Dodson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Elliott · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Dodson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8Decision
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W · KO · R3
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W · Dec · R3
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Elliott · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1Decision
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