UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
New York City, USA
6 Nov 2021
Heavyweight
VS
27%
Villante
73%
Barnett
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:23
GV
Gian Villante
17 – 14
6'3"76" reachOrthodox40 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 20
Chris
Chris Barnett
"Beastboy"
23 – 10
Knockout Artist2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox75" reach5'9"
CFR 56

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barnett

Barnett is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Barnett has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Barnett has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Villante's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Barnett has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Villante
Barnett
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
75"
40
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Villante
Barnett
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
55.9
40.8
Performance Avg
46.3
42
Quality of Victory
55
33
Momentum Score
65
Villante
Barnett
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
49%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
10
4
Body
1
1
Leg
6
RangeRange
8Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground9
Villante
Barnett
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Villante
Barnett
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/31 fights
Chin rating based on
6/33 fights
Villante
Barnett
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
65
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Villante
Barnett
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Villante
Barnett
Striking6.5 / 10.0Volume4.2 / 0.7Grappling1.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Villante
Strike Zones
Barnett
Villante
Attacking
3HEAD4BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY6LEGS17 absorbed
Barnett
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY6LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD4BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Villante targets the body (50% of attacks) — Barnett absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Barnett targets the head (59% of attacks) — Villante absorbs 59% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Villante
RND
Barnett
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Villante · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0106.1L5.2W5.5L4.5W5.5W2.8L5.0W5.5L5.2W4.0L5.5L4.5W5.5L4.7W2.5L4.0L5.5L3.8L2013-042015-072017-072020-062021-11
WinLossTrend

Barnett · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0102.8L5.2W6.5L5.2W2.8L6.0L2021-052021-112022-042022-092024-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Villante · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Chris BarnettRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Jake CollierRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · 2020-12
L · Sub · R3
Maurice GreeneRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Ed HermanRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10

Barnett · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Hamdy AbdelwahabRating 6
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R2
Jake CollierRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · 2022-04
W · KO · R2
Gian VillanteRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

News & Media

Gian Villante · Chris Barnett
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