UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Newark, USA
7 Jun 2025
Middleweight
VS
35%
Gastelum
65%
Pyfer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pyfer
Pyfer holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Gastelum has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pyfer has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Pyfer has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Gastelum's chin rating of 38 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gastelum
Pyfer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'2"
71"
Reach
+75"
34
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gastelum
Pyfer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
41.4
75.7
47.4
Performance Avg
66.6
42
Quality of Victory
53
28
Momentum Score
100
Gastelum
Pyfer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
43%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
16
3
Body
3
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance17
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Gastelum
Pyfer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gastelum
Pyfer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
38
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/32 fights
Chin rating based on
8/19 fights
Gastelum
Pyfer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
100
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Gastelum
Pyfer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
36%
86%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
2
9
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gastelum
Pyfer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.5
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.6
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
GastelumPyfer
Strike Zones
Gastelum
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedPyfer
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gastelum targets the head (57% of attacks) — Pyfer absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Pyfer targets the head (84% of attacks) — Gastelum absorbs 84% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gastelum
RND
Pyfer
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Gastelum · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Pyfer · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Gastelum · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Dustin StoltzfusRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Joe PyferRating 7.5Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · Sub · R3
Sean BradyRating 5.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
Pyfer · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Israel AdesanyaRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Abus MagomedovRating 6Submission
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Kelvin GastelumRating 4.8Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · KO · R1
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02