METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Flyweight
VS
52%
Ulanbekov
48%
Carpenter
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Tagir UlanbekovwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Clayton Carpenter · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ulanbekov
→
Actual result
Ulanbekov wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Ulanbekov at 52% vs Carpenter at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Carpenter has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
UlanbekovCarpenter
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
66"
35
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.3
52.6
50.3
Performance Avg
47.0
34
Quality of Victory
52
80
Momentum Score
39
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.5
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
4.6
Style: Pressure
8.2
6.8
Style: Volume
0.8
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
2
Body
4
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
9Distance6
2Clinch3
2Ground0
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
8.0
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
5.6
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
10.0
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/20 fights
Chin rating based on
5/11 fights
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
39
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
UlanbekovCarpenter
Strike Zones
Ulanbekov
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedCarpenter
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ulanbekov targets the head (85% of attacks) — Carpenter absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Carpenter targets the body (44% of attacks) — Ulanbekov absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ulanbekov
RND
Carpenter
0/0R00/0
Ulanbekov · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Kyoji HoriguchiSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Azat MaksumDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Clayton CarpenterDecision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenSubmission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Sub · R1
Nate ManessSubmission
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Carpenter · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaDecision
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L · Sub · R1
Jafel FilhoSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
Tagir UlanbekovDecision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R2
Lucas RochaSubmission
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W · Sub · R1
Juancamilo RonderosSubmission
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