UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Flyweight
VS
52%
Ulanbekov
48%
Carpenter
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tagir
Tagir Ulanbekov
17 – 3
5'7"70" reachSouthpaw34 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 56
Clayton
Clayton Carpenter
8 – 3
Submission Hunter3-fight slide29 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'6"
CFR 53

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ulanbekov

This is a genuine toss-up — Ulanbekov at 52% vs Carpenter at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Carpenter has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Striking split: Carpenter throws more volume but Ulanbekov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
66"
34
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.3
52.6
50.3
Performance Avg
47.0
34
Quality of Victory
52
80
Momentum Score
39
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
54%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
2
Body
4
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
9Distance6
2Clinch3
2Ground0
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/20 fights
Chin rating based on
5/11 fights
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
39
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ulanbekov
Carpenter
Striking1.5 / 0.8Volume6.8 / 0.8Grappling4.3 / 8.0Wrestling3.0 / 5.6Submission3.3 / 10.0Pressure4.6 / 8.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
6.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
Ulanbekov
Strike Zones
Carpenter
Ulanbekov
Attacking
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD4BODY4LEGS9 absorbed
Carpenter
Attacking
1HEAD4BODY4LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD2BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ulanbekov targets the head (85% of attacks) — Carpenter absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Carpenter targets the body (44% of attacks) — Ulanbekov absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ulanbekov
RND
Carpenter
0/0R00/0

Ulanbekov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.4W6.0W5.6L6.2W5.4W5.4W4.5W5.5L2020-102022-032023-122025-062025-11
WinLossTrend

Carpenter · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.0W5.4W6.6L2.6L6.4L2023-022024-102025-012025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Ulanbekov · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Kyoji HoriguchiRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Azat MaksumRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Clayton CarpenterRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Sub · R1
Nate ManessRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11

Carpenter · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jose OchoaRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jafel FilhoRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Tagir UlanbekovRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R2
Lucas RochaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R1
Juancamilo RonderosRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · 2023-02

News & Media

Tagir Ulanbekov · Clayton Carpenter
← Back to fights