UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
Las Vegas, USA
6 Mar 2021
Lightweight
VS
98%
Medic
2%
Cruz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:40
Uros
Uros Medic
"The Doctor"
13 – 3
6'1"71" reachSouthpaw33 yrs3-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 72
Aalon
Aalon Cruz
8 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsSwitch78" reach6'0"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Medic

Medic is a strong favourite at 98% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 70 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Medic has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 58 points.

Medic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Medic's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cruz has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Medic
Cruz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
71"
Reach
+78"
33+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Medic
Cruz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
71.6
1.6
62.7
Performance Avg
0.0
58
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Medic
Cruz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.9
0.4
63%
Strike Accuracy
13%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
43
Head
0
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance0
3Clinch0
35Ground0
Medic
Cruz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Medic
Cruz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
56
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/16 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Medic
Cruz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Medic
Cruz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Medic
Cruz
Striking10.0 / 0.0Volume1.4 / 0.0Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure9.1 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Medic
Strike Zones
Cruz
Medic
Attacking
43HEAD1BODY1LEGS45 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Cruz
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
43HEAD1BODY1LEGS45 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Medic targets the head (96% of attacks) — Cruz absorbs 96% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Medic
RND
Cruz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Medic · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W2.7L5.2W6.0W4.4L5.1W2.5L5.6W6.0W6.0W2021-032023-072025-012026-02
WinLossTrend

Cruz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 2.4
0101.5L3.3L2020-022021-03
WinLossTrend

Medic · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Muslim SalikhovRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Gilbert UrbinaRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · KO · R1
Punahele SorianoRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · KO · R1
Tim MeansRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04

Cruz · Last 2

L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · KO · R1
Spike CarlyleRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · 2020-02

News & Media

Uros Medic · Aalon Cruz
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