UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
Newark, USA
18 Apr 2015
Women's Strawweight
VS
56%
Herrig
44%
VanZant
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
FH
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
14 – 10
5'4"65" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 26
PV
Paige VanZant
"12 Gauge"
8 – 5
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'4"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herrig

This is a genuine toss-up — Herrig at 56% vs VanZant at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Herrig throws more volume but VanZant connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

VanZant has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Herrig
VanZant
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
5'4"
65"
Reach
65"
41
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Herrig
VanZant
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.3
20.6
41.4
Performance Avg
49.2
36
Quality of Victory
45
66
Momentum Score
84
Herrig
VanZant
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
58%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
25
1
Body
3
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance2
1Clinch3
0Ground25
Herrig
VanZant
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Herrig
VanZant
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
62
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
3
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/24 fights
Chin rating based on
9/13 fights
Herrig
VanZant
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
84
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
Herrig
VanZant
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Herrig
VanZant
Striking1.0 / 5.1Volume5.8 / 2.7Grappling4.6 / 3.7Wrestling3.3 / 2.6Submission4.0 / 4.0Pressure4.3 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
Herrig
Strike Zones
VanZant
Herrig
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD3BODY2LEGS30 absorbed
VanZant
Attacking
25HEAD3BODY2LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Herrig targets the body (100% of attacks) — VanZant absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯VanZant targets the head (83% of attacks) — Herrig absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Herrig
RND
VanZant
0/0R00/0

Herrig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W5.5L5.0W5.7W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L2.2L2.8L2014-122017-022018-042022-06
WinLossTrend

VanZant · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5W4.5W5.5W5.4L5.2W1.5L5.5L5.2W1.6L2014-112015-122018-012020-07
WinLossTrend

Herrig · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Virna JandirobaRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · 2020-08
L · Dec · R3
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Cortney CaseyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

VanZant · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Amanda RibasRating 1.6
Submission
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · Sub · R2
Rachael OstovichRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · 2019-01
L · Dec · R3
Jessica-Rose ClarkRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · Sub · R1
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · KO · R2
Bec RawlingsRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08

News & Media

Felice Herrig · Paige VanZant
← Back to fights