UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Perth, Australia
27 Sept 2025
Lightweight
VS
84%
Mullarkey
16%
Bedoya
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mullarkey
Mullarkey is a strong favourite at 84% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 31 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mullarkey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.
Bedoya has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Mullarkey's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mullarkey
Bedoya
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
74"
Reach
74"
31
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mullarkey
Bedoya
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.1
7.4
40.0
Performance Avg
0.0
36
Quality of Victory
0
51
Momentum Score
0
Mullarkey
Bedoya
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
19
Head
24
5
Body
6
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
24Distance24
1Clinch7
0Ground0
Mullarkey
Bedoya
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mullarkey
Bedoya
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
92
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
4/19 fights
Mullarkey
Bedoya
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Mullarkey
Bedoya
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mullarkey
Bedoya
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MullarkeyBedoya
Strike Zones
Mullarkey
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedBedoya
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mullarkey targets the head (76% of attacks) — Bedoya absorbs 76% of strikes there
🎯Bedoya targets the head (77% of attacks) — Mullarkey absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mullarkey
RND
Bedoya
0/0R00/0
Mullarkey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Bedoya · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.2WinLossTrend
Mullarkey · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Quillan SalkilldRating 3.6Submission
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Mauricio RuffyRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R1
Nasrat HaqparastRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
John MakdessiRating 4.5Decision
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Bedoya · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Jamie MullarkeyRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Jai HerbertRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Song KenanRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
L · Dec · R3
Khaos WilliamsRating 6.9Decision
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