METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Houston, USA
3 Oct 2015
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Bader
43%
Evans
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ryan BaderwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rashad Evans · UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bader
→
Actual result
Bader wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Bader at 57% vs Evans at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Bader has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Bader's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Evans has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BaderEvans
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bader
Evans
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+75"
43+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bader
Evans
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
15.3
54.2
Performance Avg
53.1
40
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
25
Bader
Evans
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
0.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
4
1
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
21Distance5
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Bader
Evans
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bader
Evans
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
23/27 fights
Bader
Evans
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
25
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Bader
Evans
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
43%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bader
Evans
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
BaderEvans
Strike Zones
Bader
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedEvans
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bader targets the head (96% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯Evans targets the head (67% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bader
RND
Evans
0/0R00/0
Bader · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Evans · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Bader · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
Evans · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10