METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Houston, USA
3 Oct 2015
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Bader
43%
Evans
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Ryan BaderwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rashad Evans · UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bader
→
Actual result
Bader wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Bader at 57% vs Evans at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Bader's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Evans has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BaderEvans
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bader
Evans
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+75"
43+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bader
Evans
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
15.3
54.2
Performance Avg
53.1
40
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
25
Bader
Evans
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.8
/ 10
5.6
/ 10
5.0
Style: Pressure
4.9
6.3
Style: Volume
5.8
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
6 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
4
1
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
21Distance5
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Bader
Evans
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bader
Evans
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
23/27 fights
Bader
Evans
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
25
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Bader
Evans
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
43%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Bader
Evans
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
BaderEvans
Strike Zones
Bader
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedEvans
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Bader targets the head (96% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯Evans targets the head (67% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Bader
RND
Evans
0/0R00/0
Bader · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisDecision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
Evans · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithKO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyDecision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10