UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Houston, USA
3 Oct 2015
Light Heavyweight
VS
57%
Bader
43%
Evans
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RB
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23 – 5
6'2"74" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 20
RE
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
19 – 8
Well-Rounded5-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'0"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bader

This is a genuine toss-up — Bader at 57% vs Evans at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Bader has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bader's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Evans has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bader
Evans
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
+75"
42+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Bader
Evans
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
15.3
54.2
Performance Avg
53.1
40
Quality of Victory
46
100
Momentum Score
25
Bader
Evans
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
45%
Strike Accuracy
42%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
4
1
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
21Distance5
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Bader
Evans
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bader
Evans
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
24
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
23/27 fights
Bader
Evans
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
25
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Bader
Evans
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
43%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bader
Evans
Striking4.8 / 5.6Volume6.3 / 5.8Grappling2.0 / 1.4Wrestling1.4 / 1.0Submission0.7 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 4.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
Bader
Strike Zones
Evans
Bader
Attacking
22HEAD1BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 absorbed
Evans
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY1LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD1BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bader targets the head (96% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯Evans targets the head (67% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bader
RND
Evans
0/0R00/0

Bader · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L5.0W1.9L4.5W4.5W5.1W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.2W2008-122011-022013-012015-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Evans · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W2.1L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W7.3L5.5L4.5W5.0W5.5L1.9L5.5L5.5L2.7L2005-112008-092012-012016-042018-06
WinLossTrend

Bader · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

Evans · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10

News & Media

Ryan Bader · Rashad Evans
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