UFC 51: Super Saturday
Las Vegas, USA
5 Feb 2005
Middleweight
VS
92%
Loiseau
8%
Ray
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Loiseau
Loiseau is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Loiseau has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Striking split: Ray throws more volume but Loiseau connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Ray has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Loiseau
Ray
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
76"
Reach
46+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Loiseau
Ray
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
1.8
43.7
Performance Avg
0.0
43
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Loiseau
Ray
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.8
51%
Strike Accuracy
40%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
2
1
Body
4
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
2Distance4
3Clinch6
12Ground1
Loiseau
Ray
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Loiseau
Ray
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/34 fights
Chin rating based on
3/32 fights
Loiseau
Ray
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · R1
Loiseau
Ray
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Loiseau
Ray
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
LoiseauRay
Strike Zones
Loiseau
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedRay
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Loiseau targets the head (94% of attacks) — Ray absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Ray targets the legs (45% of attacks) — Loiseau absorbs 45% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Loiseau
RND
Ray
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Loiseau · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Ray · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.3WinLossTrend
Loiseau · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Mario MirandaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin · 2010-06
L · Dec · R3
Ed HermanRating 5.7Decision
UFC 97: Redemption · 2009-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike SwickRating 5.5Decision
UFC 63: Hughes vs Penn · 2006-09
L · Dec · R5
Rich FranklinRating 5.5Decision
UFC 58: USA vs Canada · 2006-03
W · R2
Evan TannerRating 4.2UFC Fight Night 2 · 2005-10
Ray · Last 3
L · Sub · R1
Charles McCarthyRating 1.5Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale · 2006-11
L · KO · R1
Mike SwickRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night 1 · 2005-08
L · R1
David LoiseauRating 4UFC 51: Super Saturday · 2005-02