UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
Nottingham, United Kingdom
29 Sept 2012
Middleweight
VS
26%
Watson
74%
Tavares
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tavares
Tavares is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Watson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Watson throws more volume but Tavares connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tavares has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Watson
Tavares
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
73"
Reach
+74"
43
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Watson
Tavares
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
35.6
35.4
Performance Avg
40.1
40
Quality of Victory
29
10
Momentum Score
49
Watson
Tavares
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
17
5
Body
4
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
9Distance19
5Clinch3
2Ground0
Watson
Tavares
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.0
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Watson
Tavares
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
6
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/26 fights
Chin rating based on
29/34 fights
Watson
Tavares
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
49
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Watson
Tavares
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
13%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
14
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Watson
Tavares
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
WatsonTavares
Strike Zones
Watson
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTavares
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Watson targets the head (63% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Tavares targets the head (77% of attacks) — Watson absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Watson
RND
Tavares
0/0R00/0
Watson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Tavares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Watson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · 2015-08
L · Dec · R3
Rafael NatalRating 5.5Decision
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint Preux · 2014-08
L · Dec · R3
Nick CatoneRating 5.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02
L · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · 2013-08
Tavares · Last 5
Upcoming
Marc-Andre BarriaultUFC Fight Night · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R3
Robert BryczekRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
JunYong ParkRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10