UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
Salt Lake City, USA
6 Aug 2016
Middleweight
VS
82%
Smith
18%
Gigliotti
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TS
Trevor Smith
"Hot Sauce"
15 – 10
6'3"75" reachOrthodox45 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 11
JG
Joseph Gigliotti
"Capo"
7 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight slide32 yrsOrthodox5'11"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Smith

Smith is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Smith's chin rating of 26 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Smith
Gigliotti
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
45
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Gigliotti
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
10.9
2.4
31.7
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
45
Momentum Score
0
Smith
Gigliotti
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.7
53%
Strike Accuracy
34%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
7
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance4
1Clinch2
11Ground1
Smith
Gigliotti
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Gigliotti
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
26
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/25 fights
Chin rating based on
2/9 fights
Smith
Gigliotti
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Smith
Gigliotti
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Smith
Gigliotti
Striking0.8 / 0.0Volume8.8 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.3 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Smith
Strike Zones
Gigliotti
Smith
Attacking
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Gigliotti
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD0BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gigliotti absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Gigliotti targets the head (100% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Smith
RND
Gigliotti
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Smith · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.7L4.5W1.5L4.5W1.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.9L5.0L2013-072014-072016-082018-052019-12
WinLossTrend

Gigliotti · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L2.6L2016-082016-12
WinLossTrend

Smith · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Andrew SanchezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · 2016-12

Gigliotti · Last 2

L · Sub · R1
Gerald MeerschaertRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · 2016-08

News & Media

Trevor Smith · Joseph Gigliotti
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