★ Championship Bout · Bantamweight
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Newark, USA
6 May 2023
Bantamweight
VS
46%
Sterling
54%
Cejudo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Aljamain
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26 – 5
5'7"71" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 54
Henry
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
16 – 6
Well-Rounded4-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'4"
CFR 65

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cejudo

This is a genuine toss-up — Sterling at 46% vs Cejudo at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cejudo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Cejudo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sterling's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cejudo has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sterling
Cejudo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'4"
71"+
Reach
64"
36+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sterling
Cejudo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
64.7
54.2
Performance Avg
57.5
38
Quality of Victory
54
71
Momentum Score
97
Sterling
Cejudo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.4
52%
Strike Accuracy
54%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
8
5
Body
12
6
Leg
7
RangeRange
19Distance20
5Clinch7
0Ground0
Sterling
Cejudo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sterling
Cejudo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/31 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Sterling
Cejudo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
97
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Sterling
Cejudo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sterling
Cejudo
Striking2.7 / 5.3Volume6.5 / 6.0Grappling3.2 / 1.4Wrestling2.3 / 1.0Submission2.2 / 0.0Pressure4.7 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
Sterling
Strike Zones
Cejudo
Sterling
Attacking
13HEAD5BODY6LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD12BODY7LEGS27 absorbed
Cejudo
Attacking
8HEAD12BODY7LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD5BODY6LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the head (54% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Cejudo targets the body (44% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sterling
RND
Cejudo
0/0R00/0

Sterling · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W5.5W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.3W4.5W5.0W6.5W5.9W6.0W5.2W6.0W3.6L5.0W6.8L5.9W5.5W2014-022017-042019-062023-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Cejudo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.1W5.2W5.1W6.5L6.8L6.1L7.0L2014-122016-042018-082023-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Sterling · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Cejudo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 7
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05

News & Media

Aljamain Sterling · Henry Cejudo
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