METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Bantamweight
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Newark, USA
6 May 2023
Bantamweight
VS
45%
Sterling
55%
Cejudo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Aljamain SterlingwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Henry Cejudo · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cejudo
→
Actual result
Sterling wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Sterling at 45% vs Cejudo at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cejudo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Sterling's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Cejudo has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SterlingCejudo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sterling
Cejudo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'4"
71"+
Reach
64"
37+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sterling
Cejudo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
65.3
54.2
Performance Avg
58.4
38
Quality of Victory
56
71
Momentum Score
97
Sterling
Cejudo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
4.7
Style: Pressure
4.7
6.5
Style: Volume
6.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
8
5
Body
12
6
Leg
7
RangeRange
19Distance20
5Clinch7
0Ground0
Sterling
Cejudo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.2
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sterling
Cejudo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
68
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
11 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/31 fights
Chin rating based on
16/22 fights
Sterling
Cejudo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
97
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Sterling
Cejudo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
4
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sterling
Cejudo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.0
SterlingCejudo
Strike Zones
Sterling
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedCejudo
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the head (54% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 54% of strikes there
🎯Cejudo targets the body (44% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sterling
RND
Cejudo
0/0R00/0
Sterling · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevDecision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyKO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Cejudo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottDecision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliDecision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingDecision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzKO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05