UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Newark, USA
3 Aug 2019
Women's Flyweight
VS
82%
Murphy
18%
Borella
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:46
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Murphy
Murphy is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Murphy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Murphy's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Borella has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Murphy
Borella
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
67"
Reach
+69"
42
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Murphy
Borella
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.7
11.5
41.9
Performance Avg
35.1
34
Quality of Victory
40
87
Momentum Score
10
Murphy
Borella
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
34%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.6
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
1Clinch0
2Ground0
Murphy
Borella
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Murphy
Borella
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
7/21 fights
Murphy
Borella
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
10
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Murphy
Borella
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Murphy
Borella
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
MurphyBorella
Strike Zones
Murphy
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedBorella
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Murphy targets the head (100% of attacks) — Borella absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Borella targets the head (100% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Murphy
RND
Borella
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Murphy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Borella · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Murphy · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeRating 6.3Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Miesha TateRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R4
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 4.7KO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Joanne WoodRating 4.7Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
Borella · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Mayra Bueno SilvaRating 2.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Sub · R1
Cortney CaseyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Montana De La RosaRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · KO · R3
Lauren MurphyRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
W · Dec · R3
Taila SantosRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02