METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Newark, USA
3 Aug 2019
Women's Flyweight
VS
82%
Murphy
18%
Borella
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:46
★ Official Result
Lauren MurphywinsKO/TKOR3 · 1:46
def. Mara Romero Borella · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Murphy
→
Actual result
Murphy wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Murphy is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 40 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Murphy's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Borella has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MurphyBorella
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Murphy
Borella
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'6"
67"
Reach
+69"
43
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Murphy
Borella
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.7
11.5
41.9
Performance Avg
35.1
34
Quality of Victory
40
87
Momentum Score
10
Murphy
Borella
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
4.4
6.1
Style: Volume
4.6
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance2
1Clinch0
2Ground0
Murphy
Borella
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Murphy
Borella
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
50
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R4.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/23 fights
Chin rating based on
7/21 fights
Murphy
Borella
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
10
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Murphy
Borella
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
38%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Murphy
Borella
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.6
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
MurphyBorella
Strike Zones
Murphy
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedBorella
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Murphy targets the head (100% of attacks) — Borella absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Borella targets the head (100% of attacks) — Murphy absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Murphy
RND
Borella
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Murphy · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Eduarda MouraDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Jessica AndradeDecision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
W · Dec · R3
Miesha TateDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · KO · R4
Valentina ShevchenkoKO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
W · Dec · R3
Joanne WoodDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
Borella · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Mayra Bueno SilvaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Sub · R1
Cortney CaseySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Montana De La RosaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · KO · R3
Lauren MurphyKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
W · Dec · R3
Taila SantosDecision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02