UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Las Vegas, USA
4 Mar 2017
Middleweight
VS
49%
Evans
51%
Kelly
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kelly
This is a genuine toss-up — Evans at 49% vs Kelly at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Evans has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Kelly throws more volume but Evans connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Evans's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelly has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Evans
Kelly
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
75"+
Reach
70"
46+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Evans
Kelly
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.3
16.0
53.1
Performance Avg
44.4
46
Quality of Victory
34
25
Momentum Score
65
Evans
Kelly
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.8
42%
Strike Accuracy
41%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
35
6
Body
0
0
Leg
4
RangeRange
27Distance29
8Clinch10
0Ground0
Evans
Kelly
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
2.9
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.7
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Evans
Kelly
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/27 fights
Chin rating based on
10/17 fights
Evans
Kelly
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
65
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Evans
Kelly
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
33%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Evans
Kelly
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
EvansKelly
Strike Zones
Evans
Attacking
35 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedKelly
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
35 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Evans targets the head (83% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Kelly targets the head (90% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Evans
RND
Kelly
0/0R00/0
Evans · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Kelly · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Evans · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
Kelly · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11