UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev
New York City, USA
15 Nov 2025
Featherweight
VS
49%
Sabatini
51%
Mariscal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mariscal
This is a genuine toss-up — Sabatini at 49% vs Mariscal at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Mariscal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Sabatini's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sabatini
Mariscal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
69"
35
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sabatini
Mariscal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
56.9
53.2
Performance Avg
51.9
34
Quality of Victory
31
81
Momentum Score
80
Sabatini
Mariscal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.3
51%
Strike Accuracy
55%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance1
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Sabatini
Mariscal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sabatini
Mariscal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/25 fights
Sabatini
Mariscal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
80
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Sabatini
Mariscal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
20%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sabatini
Mariscal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.7
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
SabatiniMariscal
Strike Zones
Sabatini
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedMariscal
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sabatini targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mariscal absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Mariscal targets the body (100% of attacks) — Sabatini absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sabatini
RND
Mariscal
0/0R00/0
Sabatini · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Mariscal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Sabatini · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
William GomisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 5.6Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Joanderson BritoRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Diego LopesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
Mariscal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Ricardo RamosRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Damon JacksonRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
W · Dec · R3
Morgan CharriereRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Jack JenkinsRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09