UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
Saint Petersburg, Russia
20 Apr 2019
Middleweight
VS
93%
Jotko
7%
Amedovski
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jotko
Jotko is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Jotko has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Jotko has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Jotko's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Amedovski has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Jotko
Amedovski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'10"
77"+
Reach
74"
36+
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Jotko
Amedovski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.7
1.8
42.8
Performance Avg
0.0
28
Quality of Victory
0
60
Momentum Score
0
Jotko
Amedovski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.6
38%
Strike Accuracy
28%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
0
3
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
12Ground0
Jotko
Amedovski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Jotko
Amedovski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
42
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/30 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Jotko
Amedovski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Jotko
Amedovski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Jotko
Amedovski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
JotkoAmedovski
Strike Zones
Jotko
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedAmedovski
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Jotko targets the head (79% of attacks) — Amedovski absorbs 79% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Jotko
RND
Amedovski
0/0R00/0
Jotko · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Amedovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.0WinLossTrend
Jotko · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · 2020-05
Amedovski · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Joe PyferRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09
L · Sub · R1
Joseph HolmesRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
John PhillipsRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04