METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
Las Vegas, USA
3 Jan 2015
Welterweight
VS
93%
Akhmedov
7%
Nilsson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Omari AkhmedovwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Mats Nilsson · UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Akhmedov
→
Actual result
Akhmedov wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Akhmedov is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 28 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Akhmedov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.
Nilsson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Akhmedov's chin rating of 40 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AkhmedovNilsson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Akhmedov
Nilsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
38+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Akhmedov
Nilsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
30.2
2.1
47.0
Performance Avg
0.0
36
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Akhmedov
Nilsson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.9
1.9
34%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
4
0
Body
2
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
7Distance7
5Clinch2
0Ground0
Akhmedov
Nilsson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Akhmedov
Nilsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
40
76
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
2/15 fights
Akhmedov
Nilsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Akhmedov
Nilsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Akhmedov
Nilsson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
AkhmedovNilsson
Strike Zones
Akhmedov
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedNilsson
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Akhmedov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nilsson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nilsson targets the head (44% of attacks) — Akhmedov absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Akhmedov
RND
Nilsson
0/0R00/0
Akhmedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Nilsson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Akhmedov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Sub · R2
Tom BreeseRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01
L · Dec · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 4.5Decision
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 4.9Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
Nilsson · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Omari AkhmedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · KO · R1
Luke BarnattRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa · 2014-03