UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Las Vegas, USA
16 May 2026
Featherweight
VS
51%
Allen
49%
Costa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Arnold
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
21 – 4
5'8"70" reachSouthpaw32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 62
Melquizael
Melquizael Costa
"The Dalmatian"
26 – 8
Well-Rounded29 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'10"
CFR 59

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Allen

This is a genuine toss-up — Allen at 51% vs Costa at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Costa throws more volume but Allen connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Allen
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
32
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Allen
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.3
59.4
52.8
Performance Avg
53.2
35
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
84
Allen
Costa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.4
48%
Strike Accuracy
47%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
10
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance11
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Allen
Costa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Allen
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Allen
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
84
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Allen
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
57%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Allen
Costa
Striking3.3 / 4.3Volume6.9 / 4.8Grappling2.9 / 3.3Wrestling2.0 / 2.3Submission1.7 / 2.9Pressure4.7 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Allen
Strike Zones
Costa
Allen
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Costa
Attacking
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD1BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Allen targets the head (91% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (91% of attacks) — Allen absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Allen
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Allen · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5W4.5W4.6W5.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.3W5.9W5.6W6.6L6.8L5.5W7.1L5.7W2015-062019-032022-032024-072026-05
WinLossTrend

Costa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0103.0L4.5W4.6L5.8W5.7W5.1W4.7W6.2W5.7W6.9L2023-012024-062025-052026-05
WinLossTrend

Allen · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Melquizael CostaRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04

Costa · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

News & Media

Arnold Allen · Melquizael Costa
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