METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Las Vegas, USA
16 May 2026
Featherweight
VS
51%
Allen
49%
Costa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Arnold AllenwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Melquizael Costa · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Allen
→
Actual result
Allen wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Allen at 51% vs Costa at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Costa has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AllenCosta
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Allen
Costa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
32
Age
+29
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Allen
Costa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
62.3
59.4
52.8
Performance Avg
53.2
35
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
84
Allen
Costa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
4.7
Style: Pressure
6.1
6.9
Style: Volume
4.8
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
10
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance11
0Clinch0
7Ground0
Allen
Costa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
2.9
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Allen
Costa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
64
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/34 fights
Allen
Costa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
84
Upcoming
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Allen
Costa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
57%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
2
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Allen
Costa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
AllenCosta
Strike Zones
Allen
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedCosta
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Allen targets the head (91% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Costa targets the head (91% of attacks) — Allen absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Allen
RND
Costa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Allen · Last 5
Upcoming
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